Q3 2018 Market Update

Sunday 10/28/2018

Dear Clients, Friends & Colleagues,

As you have already seen, “Shocktober” has been the month that US Equities Markets finally started catching down to the rest of the world and to the reality of higher rates and tighter financial conditions from the US Fed’s continued Balance Sheet Reductions.

Here are the 5 Portfolio Model Funds that we now offer:

Conservative – Total Return Income Model
Moderate – Global Opportunity Model
Aggressive – 100% US Equities Model (Started 8/1/18 with my own money for performance tracking purposes)
Aggressive – 100% International Equities Model (Started 8/1/18 with my own money for performance tracking purposes)
Contrarian – Long/Short All Weather (Formerly known as the Aggressive Model)

My expectation is that markets will continue to remain volatile but with a downward bias. We had a major cash position in the first 4 Models avoiding the recent losses and just re-invested substantial allocations back into positions as a result of “Buy Signals”, but, we are at the ready to move back to cash if Markets turn down again.

The Contrarian Model Fund is still heavily invested and will benefit from downward market moves while also looking to pick up growth performance in the “Alternative Investment” arena. I am expecting this Model to have the best relative performance through the next bear market as it is designed to benefit from such markets.

Our investing approach is simple: Invest for Growth, but more importantly Mitigate Losses. If we do that then returns will take care of themselves.

Especially when you put that into the context of Full Market Cycles of which we have only seen the first Half of this current one so far.

Performance through end of Q3 on 9/30/18. Our Models are in Orange, Broad US Markets are in Gray:

Conservative “Total Return Income” Model since 8/1/17, -0.07%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

Value Line Geometric Index, VLG, Conservative Model Fund, Total Return Income Model Fund.

Conservative “Total Return Income” Model since 8/1/17, -0.07%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

 

Moderate “Global Opportunity” Model since 8/1/17, -0.73%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

Value Line Geometric Index, VLG, Moderate Model Fund, Global Opportunity Model Fund

Moderate “Global Opportunity” Model since 8/1/17. -0.73%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

 

Aggressive “100% International Equities” Model since 8/1/18, -2.50%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +0.45%)

Value Line Geometric Index, VLG, Aggressive Model Fund, 100% International Equities Model Fund

Aggressive “100% International Equities” Model since 8/1/18, -2.50%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +0.45%)

 

Aggressive “100% US Equities” Model since 8/1/18, -0.67%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +0.45%)

Value Line Geometric Index, VLG, Aggressive Model Fund, 100% US Equities Model Fund

Aggressive “100% US Equities” Model since 8/1/18, -0.67%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +0.45%)

 

Contrarian “Long/Short All Weather” Model since 8/1/17, -12.19%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

Long/Short, All Weather Fund, Value Line Geometric Index, VLG, Contrarian Model Fund, Long/Short All Weather Contrarian Model Fund

Contrarian “Long/Short All Weather” Model since 8/1/17, -12.19%: (Broad US Markets VLGI in Gray, +8.08%)

 

Please feel free to reach out with any questions.

Talk soon,

Cory Reader
Chief Investment Officer
HK Wealth Management, Inc.

213-509-6544

Email: creader@hkwmanagement.com
Web: www.hkwmanagement.com

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry some degree of risk.

The Answer is: YES!

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